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Wholly Probabilistic Integrity Assessment Methods for Cost/Benefit based decision making

Page last modified

September 5 2023

Wholly probabilistic analysis methods of equipment integrity condition will enable Cost/Benefit based decisions in Asset Management and Risk Control problems like:

Corrosion inspection planning (RBI, NII), advanced NDT support
Vibration and High Cycle Fatigue analysis/design
Fitness For Service (FFS) problems (crack propagation, other defects)
Finite Element Analysis (FEA) upgrade to Probability of Failure (PoF) outputs
Other equipment damage and integrity condition problems in a range of industries

These are unique novel methods for failure control.

This probabilistic analysis methodology is holistic and has a potential to revolutionise a very wide spectrum of material strength analysis and failure prediction activities. It is different from the existing practices of constructing damage progress mathematical models, as it uses evidential integrity data in lieu of models and treats equipment units at a truly individual level of load/damage operational conditions.

Pro/con

Risk Based Inspection planning (RBI, refer API-580/581, DnVGL RP-G-101, others) is upgraded from a traditional 'fixed remnant life' approach to the Probability of Failure versus time PoF(t)

Risk cost and safety exposure evolution in time become known as it is necessary for cost/benefit based decisions

Fitness For Service analysis practices (such as crack criticality and propagation assessments (refer API-579, BS 7910) are equipped with PoF(t) terms for the risk owners' discretion, as opposed to the present state 'end of life' predictions

Material fatigue analysis (refer BS 7608, EN 13445, Eurocode 3, others) is similarly upgraded from constant 'end of life' figures to the PoF(t) evolution in time necessary for end user risk management decisions

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is also upgraded to the new level of material failures probabilistic predictions across industries, to possibly assist a wider industrial application of this advanced stress analysis method

Contemporary design codes and practices (too many to refer) can also be upgraded to design stage PoF(t) predictions where adequate loading spectra are available from existing similar designs

Probabilistic analysis requires statistical integrity data input. Latter is obtained from multiple measurement points (corrosion data) and/or recording representative load spectra (stress/strain).

Specification

Compliance Compliant with the major requirements and goals of inspection standards (AS 3788, API-580, others). It goes beyond the basic procedures of integrity assessments to provide cost/benefit outputs for direct compatibility with asset management frameworks.

Capabilities Remote analysis services accessible worldwide. The integrity data exchange can be facilitated by our secure online portal and IDMS. A wide spectrum of damage phenomena across industries can be addressed. Case studies done for oil & gas pressure equipment.

Safety Offers a genuine compliance demonstration to the risk owner, e.g. knowing a time instance of a safety exposure limit breach and deployment of risk control measures prior to that instance. Plant areas can also be classified by risk levels.

Non man entry Application of the advanced analysis promotes usage of non-intrusive inspection and condition monitoring technologies where this is warranted by risk levels.

Asset life extension As opposed to the current practice of constant 'remnant life' estimates, our fully probabilistic analysis shows the risk cost and safety exposure evolution versus time in the future.

Return on Investment This feature is able save a significant fraction of OPEX straight from a design stage through the cost/benefit analysis of the damage safeguards and minimising the frequency and duration of planned and unplanned shutdowns.

Condition based maintenance Implementation of advanced CM and NDT tools is often impaired by the risk owners inability to get added value from that added data. Our technology is focused specifically on the integrity data analysis to convert the data into confident risk assessments.

Areas of Application Generally applicable to any damage phenomena in any insdustry. Pilot case studies done using the actual integrity data from the oil and gas industry.

Impact A holistic upgrade of the whole Asset Integrity discipline, due to the risk analysis methods transition from deterministic figures to the probability of failure evolution, as it actually does in reality.

Certifications / licences We are fully licensed and insured for provision of engineering consultancy services.